The annual rate of change in withholding tax collections through Thursday, February 25, adjusted for wage and salary inflation, was essentially zero, putting the US economy on the verge of dropping into recession. It has been trending down since October, just not as badly as it had appeared. At the same time, the data still shows that the February jobs number will be a huge negative surprise. Here’s why.
The balance between QE and Treasury supply will begin to shift in July. The underlying bid it has provided for stocks and Treasuries will begin to fade.
This report tells why, and what to look for in the data and the markets. GO TO THE POST
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