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Scorcher 6: Q4 GDP At 1.9 Percent

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest - Online Course Notes For Financial Markets. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

The news from the Atlanta Fed about the start of Q4 2015 is less than positive. According to their real-time GDP tracker, Q4 GDP growth stands at 1.9%.

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The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 1.9 percent on November 2, down from 2.5 percent on October 30. Following this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, the forecast for fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent while the forecast for real equipment investment growth declined from 3.9 percent to 1.3 percent.

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Meanwhile, the Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate stood at -0.74 percent on September 30.

atlanta-fed_wu-xia-shadow-federal-funds-rate

The Evans specification of the Taylor Rule is suggesting that the Fed Funds target rate NOT be increased.

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But we will have speeches from prominent Fed members this week. Let’s see if they agree with the baseline Taylor Rule model calling for a rate increase.

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As of today, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP NOW measure of 1.9% Q4 GDP growth is signalling Scorcher 6: Global Meltdown. Or at least global cooling.

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