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Probability of Dec Fed Funds Target Rate Hike Now Above 50 Percent

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Confounded Interest - Online Course Notes For Financial Markets. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

According to The Fed Funds futures data, the implied probability of an increase in the Fed Funds target rate at the December meeting is 52%. And the implied probability has been rising over the past month, despite the dismal economic data.

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The US Treasury yield curve has risen by over 20 basis points for the 5 and 7 year Treasury yields, indicating that the market assessment of a rate increase in rising.


The Federal Reserve (aka, the SS Minnow) is likely going to launch its tour.


Here are The Fed’s Stanley Fischer (Little Buddy), Janet Yellen (the Skipper) and William Dudley (the Professor) pondering just what went wrong.


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