The Federal Reserve made a whopping $98 Billion in 2014. That’s a huge amount of money. How big is it?
– It’s about equal to the state budgets of NY, California and Texas.
– It comes to $300 for every man woman and child in the country. It is equivalent to $600 for every worker.
– It is more than the top TBTF banks make in a year.
– The profit is equal to 175% of the Fed’s equity. Way-to-go!
I could on with this; $98B is a big pile of money. But it’s chump change compared to what is going on in Switzerland.
The Swiss National Bank earned an incredible $38B in 2014. Compare that to the Fed’s results:
– On a GDP comparison the SNB earned 9Xs what the Fed did.
– It comes to $5,000 per person, and $9,000 per worker.
– The SNB’s earnings cover half of the entire Swiss budget. The Fed’s profits are only equal to a half of one percent!
So if you worry about the size of the Fed’s balance sheet you should be horrified by what is happening in Switzerland. These incredible numbers from the Central Banks are not a sign of health – They are a sign of weakness and distress.
I bring this up because there has been a development. In today’s Neu Zuricher Zeitung (NZZ) there was an article featuring one of the Swiss “Wise Men” –Ernst Baltensperger. The following quotes are close to a stake in the heart of the Swiss National Bank:
– the National Bank to abandon the rigid connection of the franc to the euro.
– The rate floor has been served excellently Switzerland. But it was always clear that it also involves costs and risks.
– it would be desirable if the SNB might loosen their minimum rate policy, at least in the foreseeable future.
– you could replace the current minimum rate by a lower limit for a basket of currencies, for example, each is half dollar and euro.
– (the change to a basket) would create the possibility that the Swiss franc appreciates against the euro in a certain degree.
And finally, the question about the SNB profits in 2014:
-It would be very dangerous to keep this asset to normal.
I said on 12/19, that the SNB’s resolve to defend the Peg would be tested in January. Baltensperger’s comments will stoke the fire. The fact that this discussion appeared in the most influential newspaper in Switzerland adds to its significance. I also said that the test of the SNB’s resolve would have far reaching consequences to the concept of the All Powerful Central Banks.
Baltensperger was asked what will happen if the ECB initiates a QE program, his answer:
– Quite possible that the rate floor (EURCHF Peg) is then retested.
Mario Draghi will announce an ECB QE plan in eight trading days. The EURCHF FX rate is a small factor in the global markets. It might soon take center stage at the big circus.
Wall Street Examiner Disclosure: Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. No endorsement of such content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. All items published here are matters of information and opinion, and are neither intended as, nor should you construe it as, individual investment advice. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers, or considering any investment.
We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.