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US job market healing

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Sober Look. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

We are seeing signs of significant improvements in US labor markets. The ADP report today was certainly an indication of recovery from the winter slowdown.

ADP: – Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is coming out from its deep winter slumber. Job gains are consistent with the pace prior to the brutal winter. The gains are broad based across industries and business size classes. Even better numbers are likely in coming months as the weather warms.”

One area to watch in the ADP report is construction (see post), as construction payrolls have consistently increased each month over the past year. With demand for rental units remaining high, this sector could pick up quickly.

But signs of improvement go beyond the ADP measures. Gallup’s Job Creation Index for example rose to the highest level since 2008.

Source: Gallup

Gallup: – U.S. workers in the private sector are reporting a more positive jobs situation where they work than at any point in the past six years. Combine this with state workers’ record-high job creation reports and the year-over-year improvement from federal workers, and March’s promising Job Creation Index reading would appear to be a positive sign in the long recovery from the 2007-2009 economic recession.

Furthermore, the ISI’s survey of permanent placement (recruiting) firms shows a surprisingly robust improvement in activity recently.

Source: ISI Group

Companies are paying more to find employees, which is consistent with the recent report showing that small businesses are complaining about labor quality – something they weren’t doing much a year ago.

Source: Source:

The markets are starting to recognize this change in labor markets, with the 10-year treasury yield rising nearly 12bp from a week ago. Another market example of this improvement is the recent spectacular rally in the shares of a large recruiting firm, Korn Ferry (KFY).

blue = Korn Ferry shares, orange = S&P500 (source: Ycharts)

Clearly we will see some volatility in the official payrolls numbers going forward, but the signs of US labor markets firming are unmistakable.

Wall Street Examiner Disclosure: Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. No endorsement of such content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. All items published here are matters of information and opinion, and are neither intended as, nor should you construe it as, individual investment advice. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers, or considering any investment.

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1 Comment

  1. WheezyGreasy

    “…signs of significant improvement in the US labor market..,.”. This is ignorant
    and insulting nonsense. We have by far the worst employment market since prior to WW2, not just for nearly 5 years but still as of this moment. 191,000 new jobs is very weak, in terms of % growth, in the context of the size of our labor force/overall population, # of jobs lost in 2007-10, amount of stimulus flung at the economy and being 4 1/2 years + past the business cycle upturn. Just to be average in % growth, we should have averaged over 350K jobs EVERY MONTH
    for about 4 years now, and as employment is a lagging indicator, we should have seen some months at/above 500K in the past year. And those should be ‘clean’ #’s, not fluffed up with birth/death model guesstimates.
      If I want shilling hackery, CNBC -and/or Mark Zandi-are a remote click away.

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