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Shifting focus in the treasury markets

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Sober Look. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

Treasuries once again experienced what amounts to a sharp curve flattening in recent days. The market action resembled what took place after the initial announcement of taper back in December (see post). The yields in the “belly” of the curve have risen sharply as the market prepares for rate “normalization”.

Treasury yield moves from close of 3/7/2014 to close of 3/21/2014

 

MarketWatch: – The yield curve’s violent reaction to the Federal Reserve on Wednesday shouldn’t be thought of as a first-day fluke by Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Rather, the rise of intermediate-term Treasury yields is one step in a monetary policy normalization process that will characterize the rest of the year, according to mammoth investment management firm BlackRock.

If last year was all about longer-duration Treasury yields moving higher — the 10-year Treasury yield rose more than a full percentage point and now trades at 2.78% – this year is all about the rise at the front end of the curve, according to Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of Fundamental Fixed Income for BlackRock.

“I think this is a very different year for managing fixed income,” he said in a press briefing Thursday.

The MarketWatch article proceeds to describe in detail how rates had moved this year vs. last year. It all however comes down to a single chart which shows daily treasury yield volatility across the curve this vs. last year. A picture is worth, well you know…


This Week Will Tell If The Bear is Really Coming Out of Hibernation

 
Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes. I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.

Market focus is shifting from taper to the trajectory of short-term rates, which is impacting the intermediate and shorter maturities. The first rate hike, while still some time away, is becoming a reality.

 

SoberLook.com

 

Wall Street Examiner Disclosure: Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. No endorsement of such content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. All items published here are matters of information and opinion, and are neither intended as, nor should you construe it as, individual investment advice. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers, or considering any investment.

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