’m a coffee lover, and this is getting personal.
Brazil, the top producer of arabica coffee, has gotten hammered by drought. A few analysts have cut their estimates for the 2014/15 crop, with a leery eye on the 2015/16 crop. It’s not a catastrophe for the rest of the world, and there is a pretty good chance we won’t have to switch to drinking hot water.
But it was good enough for traders to nudge coffee futures up a few cents from their multi-year low of just over a buck a pound in November. In January, once the charts gave the go-ahead – among them, James Ferro of Signalinea posted his call on January 29 – traders piled in and went haywire and catapulted coffee futures to today’s high of $2.089 (before it ran out of hot air), having doubled in four months.
To make life miserable for the rest of us coffee lovers. Our latte, espresso, or just plain good coffee is going to bite fiercely into our already mauled pocket book.
And here it is via Signalinea, a weekly chart (doesn’t include today’s moves) going back to 2007. Already the craziest chart of the year, though it’s just March:
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