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Market correlations shift back to risk-on/off pattern – Sober Look

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Sober Look. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

The chart below compares the performance of long-term treasuries (TLO) to emerging market bonds (EMB) over the past year.

Source: Ycharts

The relationship between US rates and emerging market assets (particularly bonds and currencies) has shifted. Last year both were responding the big unknown of the Fed’s tapering of QE3 – and moving roughly in the same direction. Now that taper is a reality and we have some certainty around the magnitude of the reductions in the near-term, the correlation has reversed. The current environment is once again based on risk-on/risk-off dynamics as was the case during the Eurozone crisis. Risk-on pushes prices of treasuries higher and emerging market assets lower. This trend that was quite visible yesterday, with a partial reversal taking place today (chart below compares Brazil vs. US rates in recent weeks).

SoberLook.com

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Skating on Thin Ice, Keep Life Preservers Handy

We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.

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