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Durable Goods Orders Flat for Past Two Years

December Durable Goods Were Weak

The headline number for seasonally adjusted, nominal durable goods orders fell 4.3% in December. That was worse than the lowest guess of economists in a survey conducted by Bloomberg.

Actual, Real Durable Goods Orders Were At Same Level as December 2012 and 2011

In real terms, adjusted for inflation, and not seasonally adjusted, the actual unit volume of orders has been unchanged for two years. There is no growth. The manufacturing “recovery” ended in December 2011. In fact, this year shows a 0.8% year to year decline. Durable goods orders unit volume remains 14% below the December 2007 level.

On a month to month basis, December is always an up month. This year was no exception, but the 6.2% gain from November is barely more than half of the usual 11.7% increase. It was way below the December 2012 jump of 16.3%.

Durable Goods Stagnate as Fed Prints and Stocks Soar

The Fed went on a money printing binge with QE3-4 taking effect in November 2012. From then until lately, stocks soared. But durable goods orders have stalled. The Fed driven stock market bubble is a fact. The manufacturing recovery is a myth.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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