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Posted in Contributors- Economic and Financial, Other Guys, Taken Down

BLS senior management should be added to the initial claims statistic

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Sober Look. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

The chart below shows US initial jobless claims without the seasonal adjustment. See anything wrong with this picture?

Claims count had a sudden unprecedented decline and remains at these low levels (expectations have been that claims should have risen materially this week.)  The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admitted they had a “glitch” in the benefits systems (see chart), which they claim has been corrected last week. If this is accurate, the nation has had an unprecedented improvement in the job market – seemingly out of nowhere. That means the payrolls data for September should be spectacular. That is unlikely.

WSJ: – MFR Inc. economist Joshua Shapiro said the monthly jobs reports as well as the other data such as withholding tax receipts have pointed to a weaker labor market. “Our belief is that the claims data should not be taken at face value as they are inconsistent with too much other evidence,” he said.

Given how critical employment data are in this economic environment – both in terms of monetary and fiscal policy – this is not an error that can simply be ignored. Someone senior a BLS should be added to the initial jobless claims number.

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Wall Street Examiner Disclosure: Lee Adler, The Wall Street Examiner reposts third party content with the permission of the publisher. The opinions expressed in these reposts are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler, unless authored by me, under my byline. I curate posts here on the basis of whether they represent an interesting and logical point of view, that may or may not agree with my own views. Some of the content includes the original publisher's promotional messages. No endorsement of such content is either expressed or implied by posting the content. All items published here are matters of information and opinion, and are neither intended as, nor should you construe it as, individual investment advice. Do your own due diligence when considering the offerings of information providers, or considering any investment.

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