Menu Close

Other central banks impacting US money supply

This is a syndicated repost published with the permission of Sober Look. To view original, click here. Opinions herein are not those of the Wall Street Examiner or Lee Adler. Reposting does not imply endorsement. The information presented is for educational or entertainment purposes and is not individual investment advice.

Sober Look had an interesting post yesterday pointing out the problems the Fed has been facing lately in achieving money supply growth. I’ve covered this issue at length here so I sent Sober Look a quick note summarizing what I’ve observed.  He was gracious enough to immediately share these thoughts, which follow,  with his readers:

When the Fed prints reserves by buying MBS and Treasuries with money that did not exist previously, this increases bank deposits (liabilities) and cash assets pretty much dollar for dollar. I have run charts showing this relationship, but something went wrong beginning in January.

SOMA Vs Bank Deposits - Click to enlarge
SOMA Vs Bank Deposits – Click to enlarge

 

US Commercial Bank Loans and Deposits
US Commercial Bank Loans and Deposits – Click to enlarge
That something was the breakdown in Treasuries holdings, as Eurozone banks began to unwind the LTRO trade at the first opportunity in January.
ECB and US Treasury Market - Click to enlarge
ECB and US Treasury Market – Click to enlarge

The Fed is not the only actor in this game. All the major central banks conduct operations with the Fed’s 21 Primary Dealers. US money supply data represents not just the US but is a pretty big slice of the whole world and reflects other central bank policies and the flows of capital between nations and banking systems.

Treasuries were liquidated to pay down the LTRO. At the same time we saw the echo of that in US commercial bank repo lending and other securities lending to nonbanks, extinguishing the offsetting deposits.

 

Bank Repo And Securities Loans To Nonbanks - Click to enlarge
Bank Repo And Securities Loans To Nonbanks – Click to enlarge
The forced march liquidation of leveraged holdings by big Chinese shadow institutions also showed up here. The BoE has also been running tighter policy (see US and Japan Pump It, Chinese Dam It and Suck, And Europe Sullenly Suffers Shrinkage).
So the Fed and BoJ are fighting an uphill battle to keep money supply inflating. US money supply would still be increasing dollar for dollar with the Fed’s purchases, but some of  their friends, other central banks, are no longer cooperating.

Track the really important data with me and stay up to date with the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central banks in the US market,  in the Fed Report in the Professional Edition, Money and Liquidity Package. Try it risk free for 30 days. Don’t miss another day. Get the research and analysis you need to understand these critical forces. Be prepared. Stay ahead of the herd. Click this link and begin your risk free trial NOW!

Read

More Economic Charts

Follow my real time comments on the markets and economy @Lee_Adler on Twitter!

Join the conversation and have a little fun at Capitalstool.com. If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

RSS
Follow by Email
LinkedIn
Share

Discover more from The Wall Street Examiner

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading