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Emerging economies have always run higher inflation rates than developed markets (DM) due to stronger growth. The spread in inflation rates has generally been steady, running roughly 2-3 percentage points. Recently however the spread has blown out to over 4% – a post-recession high.
Emerging nations selling into developed markets are losing pricing power and will have a tougher time keeping up with domestic labor cost increases (some of which are forced by their governments). EM corporate margins are already under pressure, ultimately weakening growth. India or Mexico are good examples (charts below). While temporary, this divergence could be quite disruptive in the near-term.
|Mexico GDP growth (source: GS)|
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