Menu Close

Wall Street Conomists Underestimate Jobless Claims Improvement Again, But Should Not Have


Jobless Claims in US Unexpectedly Decline to a Six-Week Low
Bloomberg
The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits declined to a six-week low, showing further improvement in the labor market. First-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 7,000 to 340,000 in the week ended March 2, the lowest since the period
Jobless Claims Fall as Labor Recovery Grinds OnWall Street Journal

US jobless claims unexpectedly fall, signal labor market gainsReuters
Weekly US unemployment claims fall to 340000 The Associated Press
CNBC.com –Huffington Post
all 11 news articles »

Well, they’ve done it again. The Wall Street economic forecasting crowd persistently underestimates both the drop in jobless claims and the growth in employment.  Tomorrow’s payrolls report should be no exception. I guess they pay no attention to surging withholding tax collections. The smoothed 4 week average is now up 9% in real terms, with only about 4% of that accountable to the increase in tax rates.

Real Federal Withholding Taxes - Click to enlarge
Real Federal Withholding Taxes – Click to enlarge

This chart is updated weekly in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury update. Stay up to date with the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central banks in the US market, along with regular updates of the US housing market, in the Fed Report in the Professional Edition, Money Liquidity, and Real Estate Package. Try it risk free for 30 days. Don’t miss another day. Get the research and analysis you need to understand these critical forces. Be prepared. Stay ahead of the herd. Click this link and begin your risk free trial NOW!

Read First Time Claims Decline Right On Trend But Will Street Economists Are Fooled Again.

More Economic Charts

Follow my comments on the markets and economy in real time @Lee_Adler on Twitter!

 

Sign Up To Receive Free Wall Street Examiner Email Bulletins

Lee AdlerGet a “heads up” on these lively, informative commentaries on the latest economic and financial data.

You will receive one or more free e-letters each week featuring an excerpt from a current Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition report or from an exclusive report on current economic data releases to help you to cut through the media spin and give you a clear picture of what’s happening  in the markets and the economy.

Thanks for joining me in the search for reason and clarity in this treacherous environment!

Lee


View email bulletins archive

 

 

 

 

RSS
Follow by Email
LinkedIn
Share

Discover more from The Wall Street Examiner

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading