Treasury supply will be moderately heavy in the week ahead. This week supply was heavier than expected when the Treasury floated a surprise Cash Management Bill. The long end of the Treasury market felt some pressure, but stocks continued to bump along the highs. In view of the supply pressure, stocks held up remarkably well.
Meanwhile, indications are that the Primary Dealers are no longer willing to support the Treasury bull market. Neither are the Foreign Central Banks or commercial banks. Only the public is still enamored with bonds but it’s increasingly obvious that the tide is flowing away from bonds and toward stocks.
The Treasury is flush with cash from mushrooming withholding tax collections, and will face reduced outlays going forward thanks to the sequestration. And the Fed is about to start another massive mid month settlement of its forward MBS purchases. Where are the factors that will change the direction of the markets?
Table of Contents
Treasury Auctions
This week
Week Ahead
Treasury Auction Takedowns By Investor Class
Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings
Foreign Central Banks
Bond Fund Flows
Bank Holdings of Treasuries
Federal Government Cash Flows
10 Year Treasury Yield
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