Wall Street’s “bond kings” have loudly proclaimed the worst and most dangerous bond market conditions they had ever seen, but foreign central banks (FCBs), who are not moved by such proclamations, clearly weren’t listening. Last week they added the largest amount to their holdings of Treasuries at the Fed in the 12 years that the Fed has been publishing this data. Demand surged at Treasury Auctions as other investors joined FCBs in returning to the table. Sentiment toward the European crisis, which had been complacent for several months, suddenly turned negative again and once again, capital fleeing Europe apparently sought safe haven in the US Treasury market. Primary Dealers also returned to net buying after a month of heavy selling.
Treasury supply is likely to be restrained as tax collections continue to surge and spending looks all but certain to be cut. The Fed continues to buy more than enough paper to finance more than 100% of new Treasury issuance, leaving funds left over for dealers to deploy elsewhere. The return of heavy foreign central bank buying also removes supply from the market, as the FCBs almost never sell. This could be bullish for both bonds and stocks.
This report shows these forces in charts and analyzes what they mean for the short term and longer term outlook for the bond market and stock prices. This is essential information for investors and traders who want to understand the forces that drive market trends.
Table of Contents
Week Just Completed
Treasury Auction Takedowns By Investor Class
Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings
Bond Fund Flows
Bank Holdings of Treasuries
Federal Government Cash Flows
Economic Data Schedule
10 Year Treasury Yield
US($) Dolor Index
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Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes.
I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.