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Market Hanging By A Thread, or Not

The market broke major support on Friday and is now hanging by a thread, the thread being the possibility that the break was just a final shakeout of an oversold 13 week cycle low. Any downside follow through on Monday would suggest that the 6-7 week cycle is dominant, and may be headed below the current 13 week cycle projection of 1255. This report shows which support levels should mark the final lows of this move, as well as the longer term trend.

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S&P 500 Chart
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  1. Guest


    Hope you enjoyed your family. Do you think another cash management bill needs to be floated in the next few days given where Treasury cash is relative to last year?


  2. Lee Adler

    I’m not back up to speed on the daily treasury statement data yet, but the withholding tax collections were very strong in the last 2 weeks of May, so I doubt it. 

    OK, just took a look at the Treasury balance and as of 5/31 it was virtually identical to 5/31/11, so there would be no reason for a CMB. Treasury looks to be in good shape, relatively speaking. 

  3. Guest

    If we are looking at the same data going one day forward the 6/1/12 balance appears to be $24 billion less than 6/1/11. If spending/receipts are relatively similar year-to-year does that put the Treasury in a precarious position prior to the next UST note settlements on 6/15? Thanks for the quick response earlier.

  4. Lee Adler

    Not likely. Probably just a normal timing offset for a major payment like VA pensions or SS. I’ll have a better handle on the data later in the week, but see nothing out of the ordinary and no reason for any surprises. They know what their outlays will be, so surprises are almost always on the revenue side. In this case, revenue now appears to be well ahead of forecast in the short run. Don’t know why, but it is what it is. 

  5. Lee Adler

    And I had a great time with my grandkids, thanks. The problem with taking a few days off is that it’s hell getting caught up with the data and my reports! 

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