Builders are only adding about 450,000 single family units per year. Total starts including multifamily over the past 12 months were 653,000. Meanwhile, the US appears to be on pace to add between 1 million and 1.5 million full time jobs this year. (Subscriber login below)
The math is clear and shrinking inventories prove it. Housing is being absorbed faster than it is being built. Supply is shrinking. Demand has increased. Prices are rising, and have broken last year’s highs. Even if demand remains constant at current levels, that would be sufficient to keep pushing prices higher and ultimately elicit a supply response. In the short to intermediate term, the fundamentals suggest that the recent uptrend in house prices is for real and sustainable until something changes. Our job will be to identify what that something is before anyone else sees it.
This report analyzes the fundamentals that have resulted in this turn and shows whether it is likely to be sustained and why. Illustrated with numerous proprietary charts.
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