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Treasury Buying Panic Reaches Major Inflection Point, Whither Yields Go, So Too Stocks

The Treasury had a heavy calendar last week. The market will face a big Treasury settlement this Thursday as a result. The need to pay for that supply will play a role in the market probably on Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday, or with a delayed reaction on Friday. However, balancing that is the ongoing Treasury buying panic, mostly driven by the flight of European capital into the US. The 1.70 level on the 10 year is the key benchmark to watch in determining whether that capital flow will be sufficient to send Treasury yields crashing further. The recent linkage would suggest that if yields do break down, stocks will go with them, with 1295 being the benchmark to watch on the S&P.

On the other hand, with no new long term supply offered next week, once the May 31 settlement is put to bed, the pressure on the market will ease until mid month at least. This report looks at the data likely to play a role in how these markets move in the weeks ahead.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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