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SPX, NASCRACK, RUT, and USD Updates: This Rally Was No Surprise…

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Alright, sleep is becoming a thing of the past for me, and exhaustion a thing of the present.  So this update I’m actually going to keep short, unlike yesterday’s failed attempt at brevity.  I spent a fair amount of time on the charts, so hopefully they’re self-explanatory.

It appears that the preferred count of Friday and Monday was a dead-on hit, and that we’re now most likely in blue wave (4).  There are more bullish potentials — so as always, I would caution against any temptation toward complacency. 

This rally wave currently has an a-b-c appearance, and could be nearly complete.  However, fourth waves are known to frequently string together several fractals, so another up/down sequence wouldn’t be out of the question.

Most notable levels are discussed on the chart, and bears should definitely be cautious in event of any breakouts above the red trendline.

The Nasdaq appears to have further to fall.

The next chart simply examines the trendchannels on RUT.

The last chart I want to call attention to is the US Dollar.  If you went long the dollar near the red trendline, as I strongly hinted was a solid play (on several occasions), then you are now in profit of $2200-2400 per DX contract.  Dollar has currently run into some expected resistance at the a-wave high.  A further correction here would not be out of the quesion, but once it breaks out above the a-wave high, it should be relatively smooth sailing to the targets.

In conclusion, it doesn’t yet appear that the final lows for this wave are in place, and a trip into the mid-1200’s still appears likely before it’s completed.  Trade safe.

 


Skating on Thin Ice, Keep Life Preservers Handy

We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the report.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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