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Liquidity in Four Week Stall, But Still In Uptrend

The composite liquidity indicator downticked slightly last week on small declines in most of its components. It has been flat since May 2, while remaining in a strong uptrend. We know that the Fed’s pumping to Primary Dealers is in a virtually permanent uptrend, but other indicators may not be. Pauses have been a normal feature of this uptrend. Downturns have been rare and short-lived since 2008.

While the uptrend may slow from time to time, unless the trend turns down for a significant period, a broad based bear market encompassing both bonds and stocks is unlikely. However, when the trend of liquidity is flat, one of the markets is likely to be downtrending while the other stays in an uptrend or at least flat. It’s also possible that both markets could become rangebound.

Sorting out those issues is where technical analysis comes in.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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