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Forecasters Flying Blind When Predicting Repercussions of Greek Exit – WSJ

My only reaction to the Wall Street Journal headline is, “What else is new?” Maybe the editor was thinking the same thing, only can’t say it? As I read the tweets of the mainstream journalists on Twitter, it is clear that they are personally far more cynical then their work for “The Man” reflects. But I think that they are probably dissing Hacker Murdoch, not to mention the pathetic shills they deal with day in and day out, behind their backs. Old Rupie the Hacker is too busy with his mushrooming coverup, and the shills are too self absorbed, to notice.

Economic computer models typically depend on the past to forecast the future. The possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone is an exception to the rule because no nation has exited before.

Certainly, the Greek and European economies would take a big hit. But the impact from the unprecedented event on the U.S. economy is harder to quantify. Economists are depending on instinct rather than regressions.

U.S. exports would take a hit, say economists. The current recession in Europe hasn’t yet curtailed demand across the pond for U.S.-made goods, but look for declines later in the year.

The most immediate impact would be seen in the financial markets. Until the dust settles, investors would be likely to seek safe assets.

via Forecasters Flying Blind When Predicting Repercussions of Greek Exit – Real Time Economics – WSJ.


Skating on Thin Ice, Keep Life Preservers Handy

We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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