Today’s update is going to be very short and sweet, due to time constraints I ran into with some family issues.
There are two reasonable ways to view the most recent action, as shown on the chart below. The good news for bears is that the rally is almost certainly corrective, and should ultimately resolve with lower prices.
The question is more whether it will do so more directly, or if there’s another run-up still left.
Here are the two most fitting ways to count the rally so far:
1. It is a complete w-x-y double zigzag, and the next wave down has begun.
2. It is an incomplete double zigzag, and yesterday’s action completed the b-wave of said zigzag.
I’ve marked a few levels to watch on the chart.
(Editor’s note: There’s a typo on this chart — red “3/c” should read “i/c.”)
In any case, it is thus far extremely challenging to count the rally as an impulsive form. If it’s a motive wave, it would have to be counted as either a leading or ending diagonal. It’s very challenging to see it as anything overly constructive to the bull case.
In conclusion, the next wave down may be underway, and that’s the interpretation I’m leaning toward — although just barely. Part of the reason I’m leaning that way is because the Euro has been rallying all night, and just tagged 1.32075… and I think it’s now on the verge of a steep decline. So I’m factoring that in as the final straw. It’s possible my Euro analysis is wrong, since I lack the market confirmation I need regarding a decline in Euro (no key overlaps yet), and so I may be factoring in something that isn’t going to happen! The equities decline could have been a b-wave, with c-up to come. The key level for that argument would be 1390.46. Trade safe.
At the request of a reader, here’s a quick breakdown of the correction that came on April 18 and 19. This is why it can sometimes be challenging to figure out exactly what the market’s planning — it’s virtually impossible to predict a wave like this in advance.