Every time one of my articles that recognizes the currently bullish trend in some economic indicator is posted over on Zerohedge, it gets thousands of views. But those posts also bring forth a shitstorm of righteous indignation from the permabear crowd, of which, ironically I am one (more or less). I do recognize cyclical bull markets, however, and I’m a big believer in not fighting the tape or the Fed. My allegiance is always to seeking out the facts and understanding what they mean in the context of identifying the trend. I don’t shy away from controversy in defense of my analysis. In that vein, here is the response I posted to the outraged critics over on Zerohedge this morning.
Everybody knows that the absolute level of employment is catastrophic. I wrote about that here just the other day. My article yesterday was about the trend of claims. Like it or not, there’s a strong inverse correlation between claims and stock market performance, and my job is to identify the trend and identify important turning points. The trend of claims is still down, which correlates with the fact that the trend of the market remains up.
I’ve been called many things in the 12 years I’ve published my websites, but this was the first time I’ve been called a bull. I had to chuckle at that.
The idea that the claims data isn’t supported by the tax data is false. March gross withholding was up by 2.6% versus March 2011, with the last reporting day this year being the 30th, versus the 31st last year. Total gross tax collections before refunds were up 4.7%. Those are the facts from the last day of the month Daily Treasury Statement for this year and last year.
Hating the facts and hating the deliverer will not help anyone trade the market successfully. Making shit up when the facts don’t agree with your negative worldview will not help you trade successfully. Repeating made up shit over and over doesn’t make it true, any more than the lies Wall Street foists on you every day.
I happen to share that negative worldview, and have documented the facts throughout the time I’ve been doing this. Sometimes market trends and economic trends are positive, even though they are at historically terrible levels. That’s just the way it works. These things move in cycles. Bull markets happen in secular bearish periods. Those who are constantly in denial about that are doomed to lose. To win at this game a person needs to be willing to seek the truth, accept it, understand how the system works, and put that understanding to work, regardless of the fact that it may be a sham system. That cannot be done if the starting point is to deny the facts and insist on what should be rather than what is.
I invite you to visit with me at the Wall Street Examiner and see for yourself that the search for truth is essential, regardless of where it leads and what unpleasant facts it uncovers.
Thank you for reading my articles, and thanks most of all to Ilene for posting them, and to Zerohedge for running them. I deeply appreciate it. I realize that most of you see me as the enemy, but that’s not accurate. I always have been and remain very much one of you- a bear and an archcritic of the system, but my first allegiance is to objectivity. I will not sacrifice my integrity or the search for the facts for anyone or any reason.
The article that triggered the most recent stream of invective. Just How Bad Is This Week’s Unemployment Claims Data? Not Bad At All
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