Support the Wall Street Examiner! Choose your level of support to receive a free proprietary report as my thanks. Click the button below to see your options. Become a Patron!

A Week on (Relatively) Easy Street for Treasuries

The following is the executive summary of this week’s report to subscribers.To read the reports risk free for 30 days (one time only), click here.

The markets face another week on relatively easy street in terms of Treasury supply. Even though the Treasury is auctioning a big slug of longer term paper, it is paying down bills. Thursday will see a cash paydown to the market, and the big note and bond settlement a week from Monday will see only $23 billion in new paper, which is about half of the usual mid month supply hit. The government has benefitted from a surge in tax receipts toward the end of March and in early April. If that continues through April 15, then overall, April will be a light month supply wise.

The market only had about 40 minutes to react to the expected weak jobs report in the stock index futures. The reaction wasn’t what I expected. I had thought that a bad jobs report would be like ringing the bell for Pavlov’s dogs as traders salivate in anticipation of the next treat from their handler, Ben. The guys trading the futures didn’t agree with me, and they dumped.

Holding down yields during note and bond auction week is Job One for the government and its co-cartel members the Primary Dealers, who still hold record long positions in their longer term Treasury portfolios. So I think they’ll be happy to have more bad news to keep the cash flowing into the government bond market. With no big economic releases coming this week, the best way to do that is to shake the stock market tree.

The public is still buying bonds like mad and the markets are getting renewed help from the foreign central banks and the commercial banks in the last 2 weeks. That could underpin a return to a bullish tone for stocks once the big Treasury auctions are out of the way on Thursday. All in all, the pattern looks weak for stocks and strong for bonds early in the week, with Thursday afternoon shaping up as an opportune time for reversal.

Get the full sized chart with analysis in the Professional Edition Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers) including 25 pages of charts and clear, cutting edge analysis that you can use to gain an edge in the market. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. 30 day risk free trial for new subscribers. Click here for more information.

This Week Will Tell If The Bear is Really Coming Out of Hibernation

Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes. I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.

Read these reports risk free for 30 days (one time only).

3 month subscription to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition, Money-Liquidity-Real Estate package, renewing automatically unless canceled.

Price: $89.00

By clicking this button, I agree to the Wall Street Examiner’s Terms of Use.

Stay up to date with the machinations of the Fed, Treasury, Primary Dealers and foreign central banks in the US market, along with regular updates of the US housing market, in the Fed Report in the Professional Edition, Money Liquidity, and Real Estate Package. Try it risk free for 30 days. Don’t miss another day. Get the research and analysis you need to understand these critical forces. Be prepared. Stay ahead of the herd. Click this link and begin your risk free trial NOW!

Enter your email address in the form to receive email notification when Professional Edition reports are posted.

Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 


Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.