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CoreLogic Data Shows House Price Declines Slowing

CoreLogic’s data for January closed house sales (mostly November contracts) shows a year over year decline of 3.1% nationally. the month to month decline was 1%. However, the 12 month rate of decline has been slowing sharply.

Corelogic Annual Rate of Change in House Prices- Click to enlarge

Annual Rate of Change in House Prices- Click to enlarge

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According to CoreLogic, 6 of the 10 largest metropolitan markets in the US showed year over year declines while 4 showed increases.

See full press release here.

By contrast, Housingtracker.net, which tracks listing prices in real time showed that January listing prices nationally were up 4% year over year, while being down 1% month to month in January, as active listing inventories tightened. Inventory was down 17% year over year in January.

According to Housingtracker.net the trend of declining inventory and rising asking prices has continued to the present:

As of March 05 2012 there were about 858,688 single family and condo homes listed for sale in the 54 metro areas we track.1 The median asking price of these homes was estimated to be $224,322.2Since this time last year, the inventory of homes for sale has decreased by 20.5% and the median price has increased by 3.9%.

Listing prices rose 1.7% month to month in March, while inventory coincidentally also rose by 1.7%. This is a normal seasonal aspect of the housing market as both demand and supply begin to increase after a January low. The increase in March 2011 was also 1.7%. These were the lowest rates of March increase since 2007.

Over the last 6 years, subsequently reported housing prices have tracked real time listing prices with a close correlation. This is the first time that listing prices have had a positive divergence versus subsequently revealed sale prices for the same period. Whether this reflects the reduction in supply, or newly unrealistic seller expectations is not yet known, but if active listings continue to shrink in number, as long as demand remains stable even at these low levels, then prices should stabilize and begin to rise. The year of year rate of change data seems to support this trend.

Comparative House Price Measures Chart- Click to Enlarge

Comparative House Price Measures Chart- Click to Enlarge

I address the issue of whether the housing market has bottomed in If The Guilty (Mortgage Mafia) Are Never Punished, Housing Will Never Recover.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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