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Primary Dealers Prepare to Abandon Ship

The bulge in tax withholding has ended and so has the brief semi-vacation from huge Treasury supply. That will make conditions a little tougher on the Treasury bulls. Also making it tougher will be the likelihood of a normal cyclical downturn in foreign central bank buying due over the next few weeks.

A recent trend of declining bid/cover ratios at the auctions also suggests possibly waning interest from other major buying sectors, including the primary dealers. That’s no surprise. They’ve had all time record long positions since late December. The boat is loaded and headed for the Italian coast. Under these conditions in the past, primary dealer traders have been known to jump into the sea, leaving women and children on board to die, while the Fed’s traders scream at them, GET BACK ON THE DAMN SHIP YOU MOFOS!

The rocks may not be visible on the charts, but we know that they’re there. This report explains.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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