Watching the Treasury market has gone from like watching pork bellies trade last year to watching paint dry this year. My thesis has been that yields are bottoming, and there’s plenty of evidence to support that, including record Primary Dealer long positions. They tend to be most wrong at turning points. Long term momentum indications also suggest that a turning point is at hand. Likewise, foreign central banks have been heavy buyers and are due for a downturn in their buying cycle. Bond fund inflows are near a record. And US banks are suddenly in love with Treasuries again. In addition to Peak Oil, and Russ Winter’s Peak Orwell, we may be at Peak Treasury Love. But based on the shorter term charts, if the 10 year yield doesn’t break out above 2.10 soon, the orgy may go on for a while.
This report looks at key evidence, including charts of Primary Dealer, foreign central bank, and US commercial bank activity in the market, along with federal revenue and expense flows, analysis of this week auctions and pending Treasury supply, and the charts of the Treasury market and US dollar, to gain a clearer picture of where this is headed.
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