The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) have been in a slow downward drift after making a double top coincident with the open of European trading, versus a pivot high earlier last night. The Spoos dropped below the 2 and 5 day cycle centerlines, both moving sideways at about 1339 and 1337 respectively, but in the last couple of hours they have fought their way back to the 5 day cycle centerline. The 2 day cycle momentum oscillator has edged to the buy side, but those based on MACD have not. The 5 day cycle oscillator remains on the downside.
If they can clear 1339 with conviction, the 2 and 5 day cycles might both turn up, with room to run to 1350.
Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).
SPX cash opened weak, falling below a 5 day cycle channel line at 1341.50 which should now become resistance. 8 and 5 day cycle oscillators are on the sell side. The 2 day cycle oscillators are on the cusp of sell signas from negative divergences. If the opening weakness persists for the first half hour, those indicators should drop to clear sell signals, which would put all of these short term cycles in gear to the downside. In that case, the first level to watch would be 1338.50, and the next support would be around 1334.
The initial 2 day cycle projection of 1340 is being touched as I write this. The secondary projection would be 1336 if this doesn’t hold.
Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).
On this chart the yellow lines correspond with a nominal 8-13 day cycle. The cyan lines correspond with the 5 day cycle. The lower oscillators correspond with a nominal 2 day cycle (light blue) and a nominal 5 hr- 1 day cycle (red).
You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.
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