Consistent with reports in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Treasury Updates, the government will borrow less in the first quarter than it had originally forecast, primarily due to a big increase in withholding taxes since mid December. It is also estimating a much lower borrowing rate for the second quarter, meaning that its economic forecast assumes that the increase levels of tax collections will continue through mid year.
Washington, D.C. — The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of net marketable borrowing for the January – March 2012 and the April – June 2012 quarters:
During the January – March 2012 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $444 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $30 billion. This borrowing estimate is $97 billion lower than announced in October 2011. More than half of the decrease is due to relative changes in the opening and end-of-quarter balances; the actual end-of-December balance was $26 billion higher, while the estimated end-of-March balance is $30 billion lower. Higher receipts and lower outlays account for the majority of the remaining decrease.
During the April – June 2012 quarter, Treasury expects to issue $200 billion in net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $90 billion.
During the October – December 2011 quarter, Treasury issued $310 billion in net marketable debt, and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $86 billion. In October 2011, Treasury estimated $305 billion in net marketable borrowing and assumed an end-of-December cash balance of $60 billion. The higher cash balance was driven primarily by higher-than-projected receipts and lower outlays.
Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday, February 1, 2012.
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