Treasury yields reached the top of the recent range and appeared headed for a breakout when along came Ben, with his mighty arms outstretched he lifts up the playing field and tilts it, and back down yields went, in spite of the big week of Treasury auctions and the market facing a big wad of new paper to settle next week. It didn’t matter. Ben gave the all clear on the carry trade for 3 more years, although I don’t know how much carry you can get when 10 year yields are less than 2%. I guess if you use enough leverage…
We know this is going to blow up sooner or later. All we can do is watch the chart for signs. For now, the trading range that looks like a bottom in yields is intact. And so is the idea that the Fed at least, can make the market do what it wants, when it wants. But I heard that Bill Gross is loading up on Treasuries again, after missing, or being short, through the whole rally. If that’s not a sell signal, what is?
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We may be skating on very thin ice here, but the weight of the evidence still supports a weak bull case for the near to intermediate term. So I’m adding buy picks on the chart pick list and adjusting trailing stops to account for the risk.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, for a broad audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.