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Market Completes False Upside Breakout

SPX (cash) opened weak, pulling the 2 day cycle to the sell side with a projection of 1308 in the initial moments which has been reached and slightly broken. As I completed this update, the projection looked to be around 1304.50. A 5 day cycle buy signal late yesterday has whipsawed from a weak position, which could lead to some serious selling for a couple of days. Support is suggested at an 8 day cycle inner channel line at 1307 and a 5 day cycle inner channel line at 1305.50. They would become resistance if broken.

1309 is the point at which SPX hits a rising trendline from the December peak that was broken to the upside on January 18. Dropping and holding below that would complete a false breakout, which would normally have bearish implications.

Resistance is indicated at the 5 day cycle centerline at 1314.50.

Here’s the cash SPX chart (time stamp in lower right corner).

SPX Cash - click to enlarge

The SP futures (or ES electronic mini S&P) have been mostly in decline since yesterday morning. Support is indicated at 2 day and 5 day cycle inner channel lines at 1297 and 1295.50. Resistance is indicated at the converged cycle centerlines at 1307.50. All 2 and 5 day cycle indicators are on the sell side, with one having a positive divergence.


This Week Will Tell If The Bear is Really Coming Out of Hibernation

 
Last week’s selloff did less damage than it may have felt like. The drop stopped in the area of 3 crossing uptrend lines, ranging in length from short term to long term. Here’s what would tell us whether the uptrend is still in force, or signal that something evil this way comes. I have added 8 new stocks to the swing trade chart pick list, including 2 shorts.

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart (time stamp in upper right corner).

S&P Futures Intraday Chart- Click to enlarge

Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the Wall Street Examiner terms of use.

You can follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at Capitalstool.com.

The daily cycle charts are updated in the Wall Street Professional Edition market update every day. Get daily updates on the 4 week, 6-7 week, 13 week, and 6 month cycle projections along with regression channel and equal width channel support and resistance chart updates daily in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Market Update. Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here to become a member and get instant access to the current report and all past reports.

Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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