ECRI Recession Call: Growth Index Virtually Unchanged For 7 Weeks
by: Doug Short January 2, 2012
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.6 in its latest reading, data through December 23. The latest public data point is virtually unchanged from last week’s -7.7. The index has been hovering in a narrow range between -7.4 to -7.8 for the past seven weeks. Those of us who follow this indicator are nervously awaiting a confirmation or reversal of the trend.
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Earlier this month Lakshman Achuthan, the Co-founder of ECRI, spoke with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance Midday. You can watch the video on the ECRI website here, with bold heading Recession Update. The eight-minute video is well worth watching in its entirely.
As I’ve repeatedly emphasized, ECRI’s recession call is quite controversial in financial circles. The perma-bears are generally supportive of the forecast, while the predominantly bullish mainstream financial view ranges from skeptical to dismissive