Dec 22, 2011
Year of Dali
By Chan Akya
“There is only one difference between a madman and me. I am not mad.”
– Salvador Dali
A realistic assessment of today is required for any assessment of the future. However, in the current hypercharged media climate, it is perhaps too much to expect a normal construct of arguments culminating in a series of ideas.
As always, the usual health warnings apply here: don’t act on anything you read here unless you get proper advice from a qualified professional; and if you do act on some stuff that leads to huge profits, please take out a nice ad in Asia Times Online thanking the newspaper.
Twelve investment themes for 2012
1. The broad construct is that nothing has changed in 2011, therefore the overall volatility surface will remain “spiky” for want of a technical term.
2. Sell all your euro holdings, in every format. If you can, buy real income-earning assets in Germany, the Netherlands and Norway.
3. Add to your stock positions of financially strong companies in Europe and the US to eke out some dividends. This is a strategy that will produce a lot of headaches but there really is nothing else out there.
4. Sell all non-dividend paying stocks, wherever they are in the world.
5. Sell all government bonds in every country imaginable. No, really: including that one.
6. Sell all financial stocks. Once done, sell them all again.
7. Buy all the physical gold you can comfortably store; but do it gradually (as I expect significant price variations for the first few months of next year).
8. A Chinese slowdown in already priced into stock prices, so its not news. Start buying Chinese stocks once every commentator appears to be spelling nothing but doom for the country.
9. Indian assets (stocks, real estate) have further to go down.
10. Banks and real estate are screaming sells in the following places: Australia, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.
11. I still don’t know what to do with Japan.
12. At some point in 2012, you may well have to do the opposite of all the 11 ideas above.