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SPX and Dow Update: Just the Fax, Ma’am

Alrighty then.  Apparently, the hours I’m keeping have become too much for my body these last few days.  Many apologies.  Here’s the charts I finished last night before falling asleep at my computer for the 3rd night in a row.  🙁

The first is a big picture SPX chart, and shows what the market is up against at this level:

The second is a chart of the Dow, which shows my preferred view of the current market.  I believe the market has formed an ending diagonal here, and the next move should be lower — ideally into the blue target box. 

What I’ve been unable to determine is whether the rally is a three-wave move, or a five-wave move.  The three-wave interpretation would imply that the November lows will be taken out in the near future (shown as the blue 2).  The five-wave interpretation would imply that there’s a correction coming, followed by more upside (shown as the red A).

Below is a close-up of how to count the Dow chart and rally as being part of a bearish corrective three-wave move.  The gap open on December 5 does create something of a question mark within the count.

Below is the SPX chart, which reflects similar ambiguity, it is also labeled to reflect the three-wave interpretation — in other words, it shows how to count the diagonal as part of a three.  In both cases, assuming my ending diagonal labeling is correct, there are lower prices due immediately.

So, in conclusion, I remain long and medium term bearish, and am now solidly short-term bearish as well.  The form taken by the (assumed) coming decline should help determine whether the recent highs are all she wrote, or if there’s one more new high coming before the big leg down starts.  Trade safe.

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