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Not Too Bearish, Not Too Bullish, But Certainly Not Just Right

The mad panic into Treasuries suddenly stopped this week. 1.80 on the 10 year yield looks like a floor. The question now is whether there’s enough follow through selling to break the major downtrend line which is now around 2.03. Wouldn’t it be ironic if this week’s massive ECB Long Term Refinancing Operation was just the ticket to fool enough people into stopping their panic flight out of the European banking system and out of European sovereign debt, that the massive inflows into US Treasuries slowed? Because if that is the case, then the very big but till now camouflaged problem of foreign central bank selling of Treasuries would become very clear and apparent very quickly if it continues.

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