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Mid Day Market Update 12/15/11

SP futures may be forming a 2 day cycle top. The indicators for that cycle are on the cusp of sell signals, although a second wind cannot be ruled out until the actually turn down. The key level looks like 1209, which is where the 2 day cycle centerline currently is. If that breaks, the next support would be the convergence of inner 2 and 5 day cycle lines at 1200. If the centerline holds, then a weak 5 day cycle up phase could hold on for a day or so. The first resistance line is indicated at 1219-20. However, my current assumption is that the 5 day cycle is trending lower, rather than cycling, and that the up phase, which is trying to get under way, won’t amount to squat.

Follow my real time intraday cycle updates with cycle price targets during the day at The Stool Pigeons Wire at

Here’s a look at the Spoos 30 minute bar chart as of 12:58 AM NY time. Blue lines more or less represent the nominal 5 day cycle. Red lines more or less represent the nominal 2 day cycle. The first oscillator more or less represents the 5 day cycles. The 3 lower oscillators more or less represent the 2 day cycle. Cycles vary in length and are not the sole component of price action. Outside influences and random noise may have a significant impact at any time, often unpredictable. These charts and their interpretation are meant for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only and are subject to the terms of use of this website.

S&P Futures Intraday Chart- Click to enlarge

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Gold has been smashed by non cyclical drivers, yesterday having blown out of the channels that normally contain it. It has been in a very weak 2 day cycle up phase that has only gone sideways. Its 2 day cycle oscillators have slipped to the sell side over the last hour. Initial support lines are indicated at 1570, and 1557-58.Gold would need to get through 1583 to get anything going on the upside.

Intraday gold chart- click to enlarge

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 


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