ECRI: Give Us a Year, and You’ll See If We’re Right on Our Recession Call.
By Mark Gongloff
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading index has improved a good bit from October, although the improvement has stalled recently.
The latest reading on the index came in at 122.5, the highest since early September. The rolling growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, rose a bit to -7.6 from -7.8 last week, but that’s still lower than the 7.4 of a couple of weeks ago.
So what, you might be asking? Tough to tell, exactly. This index is not the one the ECRI used when it made its famous recession call a couple of months ago — they relied on a longer-term leading indicator, which they only show to paying clients.
ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Rises To 13-Week High
by: James Picerno December 9, 2011
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading index jumped last week to its highest level since September 9, the consultancy reports. Nonetheless, the self-proclaimed “leading authority on business cycles” continues to forecast a recession for the U.S., as ECRI’s co-founder, Lakshman Achuthan, explained yesterday on Bloomberg TV