ECRI: Give Us a Year, and You’ll See If We’re Right on Our Recession Call.
By Mark Gongloff
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading index has improved a good bit from October, although the improvement has stalled recently.
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The latest reading on the index came in at 122.5, the highest since early September. The rolling growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, rose a bit to -7.6 from -7.8 last week, but that’s still lower than the 7.4 of a couple of weeks ago.
So what, you might be asking? Tough to tell, exactly. This index is not the one the ECRI used when it made its famous recession call a couple of months ago — they relied on a longer-term leading indicator, which they only show to paying clients.
ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Rises To 13-Week High
by: James Picerno December 9, 2011
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly leading index jumped last week to its highest level since September 9, the consultancy reports. Nonetheless, the self-proclaimed “leading authority on business cycles” continues to forecast a recession for the U.S., as ECRI’s co-founder, Lakshman Achuthan, explained yesterday on Bloomberg TV