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Central Bank Manipulation Is Enough to Keep You Up At Night

I warned yesterday before all the news was out overnight that we almost had to stay awake all night and trade 30 minute bar charts because of the current degree of “flexibility” in the cycle patterns, and the nasty habit of extracyclical factors–little things like central bank manipulation–upsetting the apple cart. When markets can move 4% overnight before NY opens, even the idea of swing trading becomes a joke. As for long term investing, good luck with that. All it takes is one mean, stupid, and futile gesture by a bunch of central bankers interfering in a thin, illiquid market, and your short side profits earned through careful observation, discipline, and patience are gone. Poof!

For now, the gambit has worked, and the big interference has tilted cyclic wave patterns to the upside for a move that could last a few weeks or die tomorrow. Within illiquid trading ranges, big moves and rapid reversals are the norm. The solution is to give up sleeping and just trade the electronic futures 24 hours a day on intraday charts. Really. What else can you do?

For practical purposes, we had some forewarning of a short term up phase, so this isn’t a total surprise. We should stay focused on the short term cycles up to 6-7 weeks (low to low, not low to high), and grab profits quickly when they are available.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 


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