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Happy Columbus Day Treasury Market

Foreign central bank dumping of Treasuries and Agencies continued this week, although not at the frenetic pace of the past two weeks. This activity may be beginning to take a toll on the Treasury market, where yields are showing signs of possibly having bottomed.

Treasury supply was light with no net new supply settling this week, and the Fed bought a net of $4 billion of MBS from the Primary Dealers, providing them with a little cash to play the game of Squeeze The Shorts in the stock market. The game will become infinitely more difficult next week, as Treasury supply will explode.

Meanwhile, the dollar rally may be due for a breather, but ultimately looks to have higher targets. The dollar short squeeze among Euro institutions who borrowed hundreds of billions in the US commercial paper market, may abate just a bit next week.

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