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Checkmate

During QE2, the Fed’s purchases of Treasuries covered virtually 100% of new Treasury supply, freeing up cash that allowed the Primary Dealers (PDs) to speculate elsewhere. With the Fed now absorbing almost none of the new paper, the market faces an additional problem, and it is a huge one. Foreign central banks (FCBs) are now suddenly adding to supply, and not just a little.

Without Fed support, the dealers don’t have the luxury of mounting speculative buying campaigns, or even basic market support operations in equities or commodities. The only thing saving the Treasury market has been the run on European banks, bank paper, and sovereign debt. That cash has flooded into the Treasury market. When that ebbs, even a little, and with the FCBs now net sellers, Treasury supply could crush the PDs (who are obligated to buy it) forcing them to liquidate all types of financial assets in order to absorb the Treasury supply.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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