S&P Could Fall 20%, 2-Year Treasury Hit 0%: Analyst
Published: Monday, 12 Sep 2011 | 4:27 PM ET Text Size
By: John Melloy
Rising risk aversion, a surging U.S. dollar, historical seasonal weakness and a climb in bonds could send the S&P 500 down as much as 21 percent from Friday’s close, according to Mary Ann Bartels, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s technical research analyst.
The 2-year Treasury yield could drop to zero, Bartels added.
“There is still a chance that 1100-1020 holds, but the risk is now higher, or a 50 percent probability, that the S&P tests 985 – 910,” wrote Bartels, who is often chosen among the top chart analysts in an annual survey by “Institutional Investor” magazine. “September historically is the worst performing month in the year, while October traditionally marks important market bottoms.”