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Double Dip or Not? The Data and Policy Implications

September 07, 2011
Double Dip or Not? The Data and Policy Implications

We know that in the aftermath of combined housing busts, financial crises, and recessions, recoveries are typically modest if not halting, even if the recession is deep. [0] This characterization appears to have held true, with the question now whether we will enter into a new recession, or merely plug along with growth that technically constitutes a recovery, but is not sufficient to close the output gap with appreciable speed.

Business Cycle Indicators

The NBER lists the indicators that are of interest in terms of business cycle dating, as of the latest trough. (The months pertain to the trough dates that mark the last expansion.)

•Macroeconomic Advisers’ monthly GDP (June)
•The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June)
•Their index of monthly GDI (July)
•An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June)
•Real manufacturing and trade sales (June)
•Index of Industrial Production (June)
•Real personal income less transfers (October)
•Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October)
•Payroll survey employment (December)
•Household survey employment (December)

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