But Muddle Through is not going to allow us to really cut into the unemployment problem. We need at least 3% and most economists think we need to see 3.5% to result in some real strong jobs numbers for several months in a row. That just doesn’t seem to be in the cards. Richard Yamarone at Bloomberg is calling for a recession by the end of the year, and he sent me a rather vivid PowerPoint of his latest thoughts. Let me share a few of those slides with you.
What Happens if There Is a Shock?
The problem with a slow-growth economy that is basically at stall speed is, if there is any type of “exogenous” shock, the economy can easily tip over into recession. There are several potential sources of a shock coming from the outside the US.