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Interesting Times Start Next Week

Terrorists stood on the periphery of the Treasury market this week, waiting to detonate the explosives strapped to their waists if US politicians don’t get their acts together and move toward a compromise that would raise the debt ceiling. It will be an especially tense standoff this week, because on Friday the market must settle $66 billion in net new notes and bonds. That in itself could be enough to light the fuse and send yields toward an upside breakout.

In spite of the fact that very little paper was offered this week, the indirect bid remained weak, suggesting that the foreign central banks still are not pulling their weight. With the market depending on the FCBs and commercial banks to pick up the slack with the Fed out of the game, this is not an encouraging sign. Last week the banks showed even less willingness to buy Treasuries than usual of late. It will be interesting to see what the data has in store along those lines on Friday evening. I’ll update that in the next Fed Report.

As June drew to a close and we got the first couple of days of July under our belts, the withholding tax data showed a bit of a bounce, but in real terms, adjusted for the change in wage levels, tax collections are flat versus last year, suggesting a bleak picture for employment and the economy.

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish LiquidityTrader.com, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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