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Finally, a try at deconstructing ECRI forecasts

(deconstructing a proprietary indicator…..:) )

“Don’t get me wrong. Leading indicator models are very useful things. And the one provided by ECRI is better than most. However, these sorts of models don’t read newspapers, nor much less can they calculate the impact of factors such as MENA unrest, Europe’s sovereign crises, and Japan earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disasters on business and consumer sentiment. Only people with good judgment can make these sorts of determinations. For the same reason, such models are incapable of predicting when people’s fears related to such events will dissipate. Again, people with good judgment can make reasonably reliable forecasts of such things based on an evaluation of past experiences and other factors that may or may not be quantifiable.”

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