May 24, 2011
Earlier this month we saw evidence of slowing consumption in the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for April from the Census Bureau (see my analysis here). I’ve now updated my Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI) charts through the latest data. The CMI Daily Growth Index had been setting new historic lows every few days over the past five weeks, with the trough on May 16. The index has now rebounded a bit. Let’s hope this is the beginning of general trend reversal.
Since the consumer accounts for about 70% of the U.S economy, the Institute’s April 28 commentary on First Quarter 2011 GDP offers some insight on the differences between government’s measure of the economy and the CMI findings. With another estimate of GDP due on Thursday, the CMI commentary is a timely read. More…
