Independent Economist Andy Xie has been a China bear for some years now, so long that as if there is no one who wants to listen to him again. Well, at least I will still first read about what he said before dismissing him.
In the Lujiazui forum, he told Sina finance that real estate prices will drop by 25% by the end of this year, and 40-50% in three years. Yet he thinks the banking sector will not be hurt much even with 50% of drop. This now echoes the view by Guo Shiping, a professor in Shenzhen University, that real estate prices will drop by 50% for 5 years.
The curious thing, however, is that he doesn’t think that the Chinese economy is overly relying on the real estate market, so he actually thinks that real estate prices dropping 50% will not fatally hurt the Chinese economy, and the banking sector can survive the crash.
Read more: http://www.businessi…5#ixzz1MtMIwGpJ