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Posted in Bears Chat

Reporting on Meltdown – Oil Spill

I am not familiar enough with nuclear reactors to comment. However, I am familiar enough with the oil and gas business to comment on the reporting regarding last summer’s oil spill.

Recall, the estimates of oil being released from the well at as high as 300,000 barrels a day – and that, that amount may flow in perpetuity. ROTFLMAO.

As a frame of reference, the best producing oil well of all time flowed – if memory serves – at approx 120,000 bbl’s per day. And, that well was in Iran – part of the uber, uber, uber prolific, King of King fields, the Ghawar. And it didn’t flow at that rate very long. Most well follow and exponential growth curve in shape – downward that is. Within 18 months, the typical well will lose 80% of its production. So even a well flowing say, 100,000 bbls per day, would flow at 20k bbl’s per day after 18 months.

And the Gulf of Mexico? The Gulf has oil, but the field has been sucked dry to a great extent. The BEST producing wells pump out 10k bbls per day at best. And that production declines very rapidly – because of the nature of the formation.

And the reporting on the disaster? The reporting on the disaster was so egregious it simply boggles the mind. Claims that the well was producing 3 times more oil than the most prolific well in history. 300 times the best producing wells in the formation? That the production would never decline? Oh – but what about all that presssure – just forcing all that oil out. Pressure IS an issue with deep gas. However, with deep oil pressure in not a huge issue. Recall liquids don’t contract with pressure as does gas.

All in all, after viewing the reporting on the Gulf oil spill, I have little or no faith whatsoever in the accuracy of any reporting that surfaces from our, ah, fourth estate.

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