He wrote this Mar 9 apparently, before “another liquidity problem” was “discovered” in Japan.
This Time Around
The forecaster reached 1.28 at the end of December which compares to 1.23 registered before commodities peaked in 1974. This suggests that this peak may be more exciting than that example. On the other alternative, it may not be as intense as the 1980 example that reached 1.37.
Of course, this can’t be determined until speculators (both private and within central banks) become exhausted and another liquidity problem is discovered.
Since the end of the year the indicator has been going down and once it turned down the mania would likely complete in the third month out. This could be within a six-week period centered in March.
In our All-One-Market thesis of inflating asset prices against dollar depreciation, all sectors may not peak at the same time. The action could narrow its participation to just a few leaders. Our ChartWorks technical research concluded some weeks ago that crude oil as well as silver and gold would be the focus.